Agricultural Progress – The Reality Is That South Africa’s Agriculture Is Thriving
By Wandile Sihlobo
Since US President Donald Trump commented about his “imaginary” land grabs in South Africa, some among us have started pushing a misleading narrative that agriculture is under pressure and has been failing for a while. The inept municipalities, poor road infrastructure, stock theft, and port inefficiencies all contribute to this narrative of failure and despair. Stories of the failings of land reform farms also add to this sentiment of regression in agricultural progress. But this narrative is far from the reality of the South African farming sector. Regardless of how experts feel about the state’s capacity and the government’s policy stance since the dawn of democracy, the one undeniable fact is that the sector has grown tremendously – and indeed, not failing.
Data from the Department of Agriculture shows that domestic agricultural output in 2023/24 had more than doubled the size in 1994. A few sectors did not drive this expansion, but it has been widespread; livestock, horticulture and field crops have all grown enormously over this period. The higher production levels have mainly been underpinned by new production technologies, better farming skills, growing demand (locally and globally) and progressive trade policy. The private sector has played a major role in this progress.
South Africa was the world’s 32nd largest agricultural exporter in 2023, the only African country in the top 40 in value terms. This was made possible by a range of trading agreements the South African government had secured over the past decades, the most important ones being with African countries, Europe, the Americas, and some Asian countries.
The African continent and Europe now account for about two-thirds of South Africa’s agricultural exports, and Asia is now also an important market. The agricultural subsectors that have contributed most to this progress in exports are fruits, wine, wool and grains. South Africa now exports roughly half of its agricultural products in value terms, reaching a record $13.2-billion in 2023, according to data from Trade Map.
The friction surrounding SA-US relations has added to the view that South Africa may be pushed out of AGOA and that agriculture would be under pressure in such a scenario. However, the reality is that South Africa’s agricultural exports directly to the US account for only 4% of the overall agricultural exports. And even if South Africa could be out of AGOA, that wouldn’t mean a blockage, but there would be tariffs of around 3%, reducing the competition of South African products.
To be clear, I am not minimising what is at stake; the agricultural products South Africa exports to the US include citrus, nuts, wine, grapes, and fruit juices, amongst other products. For these industries, an exclusion from AGOA would be negative, but it would not be a collapse of SA agriculture. Beyond exports, the increase in agricultural output over the past 30 years is why South Africa is now ranked 59th out of 113 countries in the global food security index, making it the most food-secure country in sub-Saharan Africa.
I recognise that boasting about this ranking when millions of South Africans go to bed hungry daily may ring hollow, as I pointed out after a few presentations where I cited these statistics. However, it is essential to note that many South Africans lack access to food due to the “income poverty challenge” rather than lack of availability due to low agricultural output, as in other parts of Africa. South Africa produces enough food but does not export all of it. A lot is kept domestically for the local market.
To address poverty, South Africa must ensure employment and that households have sufficient income to buy food. The disappointing part of South Africa’s agriculture is the exclusion of black farmers. As I argued in my recent book, A Country of Two Agricultures, “Nearly three decades after the dawn of democracy, SA has remained a country of ‘two agricultures’.
On the one hand, we have a subsistence, primarily noncommercial and black farming segment; on the other, we have predominantly commercial and white farmers.” The book adds that: “the democratic government’s corrective policies and programmes to unify the sector and build an inclusive agricultural economy have suffered failures since 1994. The private sector has also not provided many successful partnership programmes to foster black farmers’ inclusion in scale commercial production. It is no surprise that institutions such as the National Agricultural Marketing Council estimate that black farmers account for less than 10%, on average, of commercial agricultural production in SA.”
This lacklustre performance by black farmers in commercial agriculture cannot be blamed solely on historical legacies. The democratic government is also blamed for its inability to support the development of the new crop of farmers. Fortunately, not all is lost. Plans and programmes are in place to sustainably increase the number of black farmers in the sector. The agriculture and land reform plants are not aimed at replacing the existing farmers with new black farmers. The government has around 2.5 million hectares of land to distribute with title deeds to black farmers. This will be “growing the agricultural piece” without threatening the property rights in the country. South Africa’s agriculture is robust and has room for growth. As we progress toward supporting the sector, there must also be room for young people to be included.
Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz) and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s Department of Agricultural Economics.
